MARC details
| 000 -LEADER |
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| fixed length control field |
03640cam a2200421 i 4500 |
| 001 - CONTROL NUMBER |
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| control field |
2015007310 |
| 003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER |
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| control field |
DLC |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION |
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| control field |
20190729110248.0 |
| 008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION |
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| fixed length control field |
150506s2015 nyua b 001 0 eng |
| 010 ## - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CONTROL NUMBER |
|---|
| LC control number |
2015007310 |
| 020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER |
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| International Standard Book Number |
9780804136693 (hardcover) |
| 020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER |
|---|
| Canceled/invalid ISBN |
9780804136709 (ebook) |
| 042 ## - AUTHENTICATION CODE |
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| Authentication code |
pcc |
| 040 ## - CATALOGING SOURCE |
|---|
| Original cataloging agency |
DLC |
| Language of cataloging |
eng |
| Description conventions |
rda |
| Transcribing agency |
DLC |
| Modifying agency |
DLC |
| -- |
MvI |
| 050 00 - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CALL NUMBER |
|---|
| Classification number |
HB3730 |
| Item number |
.T47 2015 |
| 082 00 - DEWEY DECIMAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER |
|---|
| Classification number |
303.49 |
| Edition number |
23 |
| 084 ## - OTHER CLASSIFICATION NUMBER |
|---|
| Classification number |
BUS086000 |
| -- |
SOC037000 |
| -- |
PSY008000 |
| Number source |
bisacsh |
| 100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| Personal name |
Tetlock, Philip E. |
| Fuller form of name |
(Philip Eyrikson), |
| Dates associated with a name |
1954- |
| 245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT |
|---|
| Title |
Superforecasting : |
| Remainder of title |
the art and science of prediction / |
| Statement of responsibility, etc. |
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner. |
| 250 ## - EDITION STATEMENT |
|---|
| Edition statement |
First edition. |
| 264 #1 - PRODUCTION, PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, MANUFACTURE, AND COPYRIGHT NOTICE |
|---|
| Place of production, publication, distribution, manufacture |
New York : |
| Name of producer, publisher, distributor, manufacturer |
Crown Publishers, |
| Date of production, publication, distribution, manufacture, or copyright notice |
[2015] |
| 300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION |
|---|
| Extent |
340 pages : |
| Other physical details |
illustrations ; |
| Dimensions |
25 cm |
| 336 ## - CONTENT TYPE |
|---|
| Content type term |
text |
| Source |
rdacontent |
| 337 ## - MEDIA TYPE |
|---|
| Media type term |
unmediated |
| Source |
rdamedia |
| 338 ## - CARRIER TYPE |
|---|
| Carrier type term |
volume |
| Source |
rdacarrier |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. |
|---|
| Summary, etc. |
"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"-- |
| Assigning source |
Provided by publisher. |
| 504 ## - BIBLIOGRAPHY, ETC. NOTE |
|---|
| Bibliography, etc. note |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 291-328) and index. |
| 596 ## - |
|---|
| -- |
1 |
| 650 #7 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name entry element |
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting. |
| Source of heading or term |
bisacsh |
| 650 #7 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name entry element |
SOCIAL SCIENCE / Future Studies. |
| Source of heading or term |
bisacsh |
| 650 #7 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name entry element |
PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology. |
| Source of heading or term |
bisacsh |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name entry element |
Economic forecasting. |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name entry element |
Forecasting. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| Personal name |
Gardner, Dan, |
| Dates associated with a name |
1968- |
| 948 ## - LOCAL PROCESSING INFORMATION (OCLC); SERIES PART DESIGNATOR (RLIN) |
|---|
| Series part designator, SPT (RLIN) |
u604010 |
| 949 ## - LOCAL PROCESSING INFORMATION (OCLC) |
|---|
| a |
HB3730 .T47 2015 |
| w |
LC |
| c |
1 |
| h |
EY8Z |
| i |
33039001360378 |
| 903 ## - LOCAL DATA ELEMENT C, LDC (RLIN) |
|---|
| a |
32204 |