The signal and the noise : why most predictions fail-- but some don't /
Silver, Nate, 1978-
The signal and the noise : why most predictions fail-- but some don't / Nate Silver. - New York : Penguin Press, 2012. - 534 p. : ill. ; 25 cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
A Catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you.
Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction.
9781594204111 (hbk.) 159420411X (hbk.)
2012027308
Forecasting.
Forecasting--Methodology.
Forecasting--History.
Bayesian statistical decision theory.
Knowledge, Theory of.
CB158 / .S54 2012
519.5/42
The signal and the noise : why most predictions fail-- but some don't / Nate Silver. - New York : Penguin Press, 2012. - 534 p. : ill. ; 25 cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
A Catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you.
Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction.
9781594204111 (hbk.) 159420411X (hbk.)
2012027308
Forecasting.
Forecasting--Methodology.
Forecasting--History.
Bayesian statistical decision theory.
Knowledge, Theory of.
CB158 / .S54 2012
519.5/42