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001			2015007310
003			DLC
005			20190729110248.0
008			150506s2015 nyua b 001 0 eng
010			_a 2015007310
020			_a9780804136693 (hardcover)
020			_z9780804136709 (ebook)
042			_apcc
040			_aDLC _beng _erda _cDLC _dDLC _dMvI
050	0	0	_aHB3730 _b.T47 2015
082	0	0	_a303.49 _223
084			_aBUS086000 _aSOC037000 _aPSY008000 _2bisacsh
100	1		_aTetlock, Philip E. _q(Philip Eyrikson), _d1954-
245	1	0	_aSuperforecasting : _bthe art and science of prediction / _cPhilip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner.
250			_aFirst edition.
264		1	_aNew York : _bCrown Publishers, _c[2015]
300			_a340 pages : _billustrations ; _c25 cm
336			_atext _2rdacontent
337			_aunmediated _2rdamedia
338			_avolume _2rdacarrier
520			_a"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"-- _cProvided by publisher.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 291-328) and index.
650		7	_aBUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting. _2bisacsh
650		7	_aSOCIAL SCIENCE / Future Studies. _2bisacsh
650		7	_aPSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology. _2bisacsh
650		0	_aEconomic forecasting.
650		0	_aForecasting.
700	1		_aGardner, Dan, _d1968-
948			_au604010
949			_aHB3730 .T47 2015 _wLC _c1 _hEY8Z _i33039001360378
596			_a1
903			_a32204
999			_c32204 _d32204