000			02852nam a2200409 i 4500
001			2013031457
003			DLC
005			20190729105116.0
008			130920s2014 nju b 001 0ceng
010			_a 2013031457
020			_a9780691159119 _qhardback
040			_aDLC _beng _cDLC _erda _dMiTN
042			_apcc
043			_an-us---
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050	0	0	_aHC102.5.A2 _bF76 2014
082	0	0	_a330.082/273 _223
084			_aBUS023000 _aBUS086000 _2bisacsh
100	1		_aFriedman, Walter A., _d1962-
245	1	0	_aFortune tellers : _bthe story of America's first economic forecasters / _cWalter A. Friedman.
264		1	_aPrinceton : _bPrinceton University Press, _c[2014]
300			_axi, 273 pages ; _c25 cm
336			_atext _2rdacontent
337			_aunmediated _2rdamedia
338			_avolume _2rdacarrier
520			_a"The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune tellers, men such as Roger Babson, Irving Fisher, John Moody, C. J. Bullock, and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses, and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929.Walter Friedman paints vivid portraits of entrepreneurs who shared a belief that the rational world of numbers and reason could tame--or at least foresee--the irrational gyrations of the market. Despite their failures, this first generation of economic forecasters helped to make the prediction of economic trends a central economic activity, and shed light on the mechanics of financial markets by providing a range of statistics and information about individual firms. They also raised questions that are still relevant today. What is science and what is merely guesswork in forecasting? What motivates people to buy forecasts? Does the act of forecasting set in motion unforeseen events that can counteract the forecast made? Masterful and compelling, Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent to capitalism itself"-- _cProvided by publisher.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
650		0	_aEconomic forecasting _zUnited States _xHistory.
650		0	_aBusiness forecasting _zUnited States _xHistory.
650		0	_aEconomists _zUnited States _vBiography.
650		7	_aBUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economic History. _2bisacsh
650		7	_aBUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting. _2bisacsh
948			_au366402
949			_aHC102.5 .A2 F76 2014 _wLC _c1 _hEY8Z _i33039001316982
596			_a1
903			_a25097
999			_c25097 _d25097