000			04002cam a2200409 i 4500
001			ocm994296609
003			OCoLC
005			20190927095830.0
008			170719t20182018mduab b 001 0 eng
010			_a2017009943
019			_a983637312
020			_a9781421424132 _q(hardcover ; _qalkaline paper)
020			_a1421424134 _q(hardcover ; _qalkaline paper)
035			_a(OCoLC)994296609 _z(OCoLC)983637312
040			_aDLC _beng _erda _cDLC _dOCLCF _dOCLCO _dOCLCQ _dJHE _dYDX _dYDX _dOCLCO _dWLU _dIAY _dTFW _dBKL _dWTU _dVTU _dLOY _dUPM _dCOD _dII3 _dCOO _dBV1 _dTSC _dOCLCQ _dMUU _dUIU _dSTF _dSOI _dICL _dVKC _dIAD _dWUX _dDLC _dCUY _dGZN _dEZC _dMFS _dDGU _dMiTN
042			_apcc
043			_an-us---
050	0	0	_aLA227.4 _b.G736 2018
100	1		_aGrawe, Nathan D.
245	1	0	_aDemographics and the demand for higher education / _cNathan D. Grawe.
260			_aBaltimore : _bJohns Hopkins University Press, _c2018.
264		1	_aBaltimore : _bJohns Hopkins University Press, _c2018.
264		4	_c©2018.
300			_ax, 175 pages : _billustrations, maps ; _c24 cm.
336			_atext _btxt _2rdacontent.
337			_aunmediated _bn _2rdamedia.
338			_avolume _bnc _2rdacarrier.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
505	0		_aIntroduction -- 1. Demographic Headwinds for Higher Education -- 2. Demographics as Destiny? -- 3. The Higher Education Demand Index -- 4. Changing Contours of Population and Aggregate Higher Education Demand -- 5. Demand for Two-Year Programs -- 6. Demand for Four-Year Institutions -- 7. Is Anyone Paying for All of This? -- 8. Coping with Change : strategies for institutional response -- 9. Anticipated Higher Education Attendance : the policymaker's perspective -- 10. The Potential for Policy to Affect Attendance Rates -- 11. Looking beyond 2030.
520			_a"The economics of American higher education are driven by one key factor--the availability of students willing to pay tuition--and many related factors that determine what schools they attend. By digging into the data, economist Nathan Grawe has created probability models for predicting college attendance. What he sees are alarming events on the horizon that every college and university needs to understand. Overall, he spots demographic patterns that are tilting the US population toward the Hispanic southwest. Moreover, since 2007, fertility rates have fallen by 12 percent. Higher education analysts recognize the destabilizing potential of these trends. However, existing work fails to adjust headcounts for college attendance probabilities and makes no systematic attempt to distinguish demand by institution type. This book analyzes demand forecasts by institution type and rank, disaggregating by demographic groups. Its findings often contradict the dominant narrative: while many schools face painful contractions, demand for elite schools is expected to grow by 15+ percent. Geographic and racial profiles will shift only slightly--and attendance by Asians, not Hispanics, will grow most. Grawe also use the model to consider possible changes in institutional recruitment strategies and government policies. These "what if" analyses show that even aggressive innovation is unlikely to overcome trends toward larger gaps across racial, family income, and parent education groups. Aimed at administrators and trustees with responsibility for decisions ranging from admissions to student support to tenure practices to facilities construction, this book offers data to inform decision-making--decisions that will determine institutional success in meeting demographic challenges"-- _cProvided by publisher.
650		0	_aEducation, Higher _zUnited States _xForecasting.
650		0	_aEducation, Higher _xEconomic aspects _zUnited States.
650		0	_aEducation _xDemographic aspects _zUnited States.
650		0	_aUniversities and colleges _zUnited States _xAdministration.
650		0	_aPopulation geography _zUnited States.
651		0	_aUnited States _xPopulation.
999			_c236308 _d236308