000			01790cam a2200361 a 4500
001			780480483
003			OCoLC
005			20190729104716.0
008			120703s2012 nyua b 001 0 eng
010			_a2012027308
020			_a9781594204111 (hbk.)
020			_a159420411X (hbk.)
040			_aDLC _beng _cDLC _dIG# _dBTCTA _dBDX _dWIM _dOCLCO _dUPZ _dRNC _dIK2 _dYDXCP _dJQM _dVP@ _dORX
049			_aOSUU
050	0	0	_aCB158 _b.S54 2012
082	0	0	_a519.5/42 _223
100	1		_aSilver, Nate, _d1978-
245	1	4	_aThe signal and the noise : _bwhy most predictions fail-- but some don't / _cNate Silver.
260			_aNew York : _bPenguin Press, _c2012.
300			_a534 p. : _bill. ; _c25 cm.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
520			_aSilver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction.
505	0		_aA Catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you.
650		0	_aForecasting.
650		0	_aForecasting _xMethodology.
650		0	_aForecasting _xHistory.
650		0	_aBayesian statistical decision theory.
650		0	_aKnowledge, Theory of.
948			_au351639
949			_aCB158 .S54 2012 _wLC _c1 _hEY8Z _i33039001209492
596			_a1
903			_a22499
999			_c22499 _d22499