000			03141cam a22003494a 4500
001			2010045037
003			DLC
005			20190729104522.0
008			101123s2011 ctu b 001 0 eng
010			_a 2010045037
020			_a9780300169690 (hardback)
020			_a0300169698 (hardback)
035			_a(OCoLC)ocn670481486
040			_aDLC _cDLC _dYDX _dBTCTA _dYDXCP _dMOF _dBWX _dMOF _dCDX _dNLGGC _dVP@ _dABG _dDLC
042			_apcc
049			_aEY8Z
050	0	0	_aQA279.5 _b.M415 2011
082	0	0	_a519.5/42 _222
084			_aSCI034000 _aMAT015000 _2bisacsh
100	1		_aMcGrayne, Sharon Bertsch.
245	1	4	_aThe theory that would not die : _bhow Bayes' rule cracked the enigma code, hunted down Russian submarines, & emerged triumphant from two centuries of controversy / _cSharon Bertsch McGrayne.
260			_aNew Haven [Conn.] : _bYale University Press, _cc2011.
300			_axiii, 320 p. ; _c25 cm.
505	0		_aEnlightenment and the anti-Bayesian reaction. Causes in the air ; The man who did everything ; Many doubts, few defenders -- Second World War era. Bayes goes to war ; Dead and buried again -- The glorious revival. Arthur Bailey ; From tool to theology ; Jerome Cornfield, lung cancer, and heart attacks ; There's always a first time ; 46,656 varieties -- To prove its worth. Business decisions ; Who wrote The Federalist? The cold warrior ; Three Mile Island ; The Navy searches -- Victory. Eureka! ; Rosetta stones -- Appendixes. Dr. Fisher's casebook ; Applying Baye's Rule to mammograms and breast cancer.
520			_a"Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years--at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time"-- _cProvided by publisher.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 275-306) and index.
650		0	_aBayesian statistical decision theory _xHistory.
948			_au338192
949			_aQA279.5 .M415 2011 _wLC _c1 _hEY8Z _i33039001186054
596			_a1
903			_a21084
999			_c21084 _d21084